PMBOK

PMBOK Guide - 7th edition

116 - 2.8 Uncertainty Domain

Glossary

  • Uncertainty
  • Ambiguity
  • Complexity
  • Volatility
  • Risk

Uncertainty in the broadest sense is a state of not knowing or unpredictability:

  • Risk associated with not knowing future events
  • Ambiguity associated with not being aware of current or future conditions
  • Complexity associated with dynamic systems having unpredictable outcomes

2.8.1 - Responding to uncertainty

  • Gather Information
  • Prepare for multiple outcomes
  • Set-based design: Many possible design to see many possible outcomes
  • Build in resilience

2.8.2 - Ambiguity
Solutions for exploration of ambiguity:

  • Progressive elaboration - iterative process of increasing the level of detail
  • Experiments
  • Prototypes

2.8.3 - Complexity
Tackling Complexity:

  • System Based
    • Decoupling - for example Microservices
    • Simulation
  • Reframing - changing the perspective
    • Diversity - Inviting people from out of the box
    • Balance
  • Process-Based
    • Iterate
    • Engage
    • Fail Safe

2.8.4 - Volatility
Tackling Volatility:

  • Alternative Analysis
  • Reserve - for example for price volatility

2.8.5 - Risk

Risk Profile Graph

Threat profile is a nice way to visiualize threats and change to them

  • Threats
    • Avoid
    • Escalate
    • Transfer - to 3rd party
    • Mitigate - reduce probability
    • Accept
  • Opportunities
    • Exploit
    • Escalate
    • Share
    • Enhance
    • Accept

2.8.6 Interaction with other performance domains

  • Risk interacts with:
    • Planning
    • Project Work
    • Delivery
    • Measurement
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